realistically we will see a continuation of hostilities
until one leader is able to seize it all
to unite the nation and bring about peace.
this of course implies to topple the opponent from his chair.
and both parties being of equal force
nothing happens
status quo
civil war.
if i would be a peacemaking UN envoy
i would propose to the libyans
to split into two or more factions,
to sign a peace agreement
to form a new alliance
the new libya
a federal libya.
after having confederated
i think they should make a deal to form a federal council as highest authority
a directorial executive
a collegial government.
the federated states should keep most decision making power.
and it's this federalism that will keep the national government weak for the beginning
allowing to not see a threat in it.
the effect of the collegial council is that no side is president
and therefore no other side loses out.
both parties should be evenly included in government in the beginning
no side should have an outright majority,
change is only driven through compromises
and because a win-win, even a small one, is always reachable,
it should be possible to find the deals necessary
to stabilise the country and bring back economic growth.
a united council comprised of seven equal members
has more horsepower than a contested president.
over decades the central government can grow stronger
will grow stronger
and maybe the country will lose its federalism again over time.
maybe as well that the libyans would want more freedoms
as much as the swiss enjoy
and introduce later direct democratic tools such as referenda and initiatives.
.
should the directorial executive not deliver as promised
that is a federal council unable to rule the country
unable to find compromises
unable to create a constructive work atmosphere between the seven councilors,
can the libyans still switch back to presidential rule,
which will be of course on the agenda of the leading politicians
hungry for power
unwilling to enter hurtful compromises.
it takes time.
don't have yourself duped by these delusional warlords
who can't resist pressure to rule it all
because hope it would be easier.
it's not
they just have themselves killed, literally or figuratively
end up as lame duck
government will be inefficient
corruption ripe
and foreign powers stealing the oil.
the people would ask itself why toppled qaddafi and endured the subsequent civil war.
they would wonder whether humans aren't better than that.
i believe they are and the collegial executive style
the best tool is to escape the vicious circle
of chaos, autocratic leader bringing order,
and again a revolution against the injustice suffered under the new emerging totalitarian rule,
leading again to chaos and the wish for a strong leader who would bring peace.
several hundred years of swiss experience
- after expelling the king or vasal from our land as the rebels we were -
show it's possible that humans are maybe not different
but that they can engage in peace and trade and work
rule as a nation of will
as a divided nation
as a diverse nation
as a confederation without strong leader
but a federal council and direct democracy.
i can only wish the same social and political success to the libyans
which way ever they choose.
...
...
2o-june-2o2o
