a delirium
And so pondering about the advantages of a federal council, i wondered of course as well whether the concept is applicable to far-distant Yemen.
A delirium :
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It could be that the risk of seeing the new government, the Yemeni seven councilors, not able to see the country escape civil war, outweighs the benefits of the promised political stability and slow growth of freedoms - as promised through swiss history.
Today's leaders wouldn't even think of such because like the people hasn't heard enough about how Swiss politics work. Isn't it an obvious lose-lose at first sight... Isn't there no such thing as the leaders of the different communities able to sit at a round table right now... An idea who works only in a schizoid leftist extremists mind and who bears no profits for today's leaders...
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The will moves mountains, as the Helvètes like to say, and so I'm sure they could be motivated to help in the establishment of a Yemeni Federal Council, should the Yemenis decide to introduce one such. We could advise based on our own experience.
It would probably be challenging, because the Swiss have never been really confronted to themselves in that manner, yet i think it would be worth it; entrenching the concept of freedom and democracy even further in the human genome.
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We could launch for that a Helvetic Marshall Plan with some of the money the Swiss National Bank has parked these days in the world in order to invest it wisely, not like we can expect miracles from the European economy, nor the American, but only slow and steady growth, step by step out of the crisis.
Worst case scenario of a Helvetic Marshall Plan : Should the creation in Yemen of another collegial executive lead to a disaster and inability to make up for the investment - despite it being wished about by the Yemeni population - , will the Swiss Franc lose value, helping cynically such the embattled helvetic export economy and tourism, who would have to suffer though from the blow of reputation not to speak of disillusioned Yemenis. In any crisis is opportunity, i like to say. Let's not get bored getting rich exploiting financial rebels ; dictators and their many helpers.
Another reason for a devaluation of the Swiss franc could be as well because a condition for a Yemeni social contract comprising different features from helvetic democracy, most importantly a directorial executive, is that there exists a plan B that can prevent the worst outcome, such as preparing a peace force, something the Swiss wouldn't probably want - because increasing instability, ie you could die from it before your time is over : a drama we like to evade - but might be forced into.
I'm strongly persuaded though that a collegial council in a federal Yemen can function and deliver. Should therefore the creation of a Yemeni Federal Council lead to peace in the country and economic and social growth, then we don't really care how the Swiss franc fares because we were able to stop a disaster unworthy humanity as I could learn to enjoy it growing up in the 8o' and 9o' in Switzerland.
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The establishment of a second federal council, through a reduction of the SNB's balance sheet is what we could opt for these days. It could be a substantial amount of the funds, which the SNB has parked outside Switzerland. 1oo billions. Half of the invested money could be given at lost costs or sunken costs to the Yemeni in form of defence and security spending and rebuilding of public institutions such as hospitals and schools, ensuring a functioning of Yemeni society. Half should be lent with zero or quasi-zero interest for 5o years denominated in the currency of Yemen, used for infrastructure projects. This amount should be doubled by international donors.
It can be hoped that there is a profit for the SNB on that half that was lent, should the creation of a yemeni directorial executive lead to more stability and economic growth and with it a stronger Yemeni currency compared to the Swiss Franc. The profit could be double after 5o years such making up for the given funds, although the value of the yemeni currency would probably already more than double on the announcement of the Swiss National Bank investing in the the country.
The money could also all be lost in an inability of the Yemeni state to pay back the debt. So what's important as well is to accompany the peace process with economic investments from the Swiss private sector. The favorable geographical situation could motivate one or the other firm to effectively expand.
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As mentioned before, to ensure the peace process works in Yemen, maybe the Swiss have to invest as well from military side. We could take up funds in the international financial markets, 1o to 2o billion chf, borrowed for 5o years as peace-bonds with roughly 4% interest. This money should be used to build a credible peace force able to maintain the calm in Yemen, whereby other forces can of course join the efforts. The experience earned and the investments done should allow the Swiss government to make up for those billions borrowed over the course of the next fifty years again.
I think the Helvètes can't just wait out the situation of an overly strong Swiss franc in the hope that can at some point repatriate the hundreds of billions of Euros and Dollars with a profit again. We have to think whether that substantial amount of cash available at the hands of the Swiss National Bank, thanks to the trust Switzerland enjoys, can't be used as leverage to bring about change as well for the poor and not just mainstream investors.
I think as well we can't just wait and hope a new president will be able to impose his or her rule throughout the country, able to unite Shiites and Sunnites in Yemen while Saudi Arabia and Iran continue their war in the world. This conflict can easily perennate itself for further years without substantial improvements, the different warlords and their loyal soldiers able to survive handily while the people has to accept the anarchy and its lethal consequences. International assistance is void of intelligence in position to bring about a true breakthrough, only able so far to propose another president with the vague promise that it's not going to be another one-eyed autocrat serving only his or her friends. Promise a crucial amount of opposing freedom fighters isn't going to accept anymore, considering a sunnite or shiite president always only as a puppet from Saudi Arabia or Iran. This initial mistrust unable to overcome and bring about peace can be prevented by opting for a collegial council, why i make my cause here.
you ponder...
...so do i
Win for the Yemeni who see with our without Swiss peace forces a solution to the end to civil war, an inflow of cash and a form of government allowing them - by admitting partial defeat and partial victory - to rule peacefully together again.
Win for the Helvètes who thanks to the intelligent investment of the SNB's Euros can finally sell their products cheaper again stimulating maybe national economic growth and enabling the SNB to repatriate its reserves again. And if the Swiss can't sell their products cheaper surely they can sell more through the increased standing.
Win for the world leaders who have made it possible and thus can be seen as wise and just and not stubborn and egomaniac ensuring them long lives in power.
Win for Saudi Arabia and the other Arabian Kingdoms who risked a lot and had invested money into the Yemeni war to achieve the result of a unity government in Yemen, free of direct Iranian influence. Win for the Iranians, preventing their allies in Yemen to lose out completely but succeed in fighting off the foreign powers and forcing the enemies in the country at the table rather than seeing them able to use help from allies in neighbouring countries to achieve another unfair result in Yemen.
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Last but not least a win or loss for humanity because we will be more intelligent and wise so it works or doesn't.
Which is the difficulty : persuading these warring parties of the advantages of a Yemeni Federal Council. Why so important to have more thoughtful scientific evidence rather than a intuitive classification into strong presidential offices and weak federal councils when it's the federalism that makes a directorial executive weak and not the division into seven. I strongly pretend a society, or nation, guided by seven equal councilors is more resilient and stronger than a nation lead by a leader, because to be a successful councilor takes what is needed to lead a nation : the will to cooperate and unite from equal to equal to be stronger.
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A fresh approach to peacemaking.
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Or a delirium...
because true, failure is possible as well
my reasoning possibly based on lies and improbable probabilities :
wishful thinking
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I'd say we will never know unless we try and I think we have the financial reserves necessary and the military tradition alive to conclude such an exercise with succes, investing financial and military assets in a war-torn country with the goal of stabilizing the situation.
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I don't think a Swiss should die at the hands of Iranian imperial ambitions or Saudi sabotage. I think if approved by a UNSC resolution and alongside other forces, it can only work.
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Maybe what's important is to bet at once on a council comprised of seven members, in order to avoid a stalemate like we see in tripartite Bosnia. Seven as the exact amount of councilors should allow to always be able as the people to balance the different forces inside the country and to always find a compromise in time rather than to continue politics with weapons again. The Swiss are used to the politics as it crystallizes itself under such a constitutional rule, are prepared and can advise.
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As a Swiss I'm persuaded of the federal approach in dividing power as well, which, as I said, would probably be the best way to unite the different yemeni tribes under one banner. It ensures they can keep a strong military tribal pride all while working peacefully through economic and cultural exchange on a renewed national pride.
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Our F/A18 and Superpuma pilotes would enjoy to fly through different skies and our foot soldiers eager to discover new landscapes. After all, we're quite the globetrotting people. I'm confident we have as well the reputation that would have welcomed us in peace by the Yemenis... ( and for business ).
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True, the Helvètes speak many languages, but not necessarily arabic. Maybe we would have to hire neutral Tunisian, Algerian and Moroccan translators speaking french and arabic accompanying the peace soldiers.
Or Syrian refugees having learned german in the meantime. Otherwise I'm sure they speak as well some english in the Yemeni business community.
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The wealth of the Swiss National Bank, having increased dramatically with the run of investors on the Swiss Franc and the SNB's resulting possibility to cash in big for the Swiss people, this wealth should be used in a way as to fight the root causes for the flight of the investors in order to rebalance the allocation of global assets; in order to reduce the misallocation of assets and prevent the eruption of conflicts in the world. With present investments by the SNB, the goals of global sustainable stability through international equality and merit can't be achieved. At the moment it's a neoliberal inspired or humanism lacking way of investing as you would expect it from Helvetic bankers. And so while the cashing in was probably legitimate, the current investment policy of the SNB lacks popular legitimacy. My opinion.
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A geopolitical delirium involving small Switzerland at peace and not so small Yemen in conflict.
A nightmare for the establishment.
A daydream for a rebel.
A proposed possible ignition for the creation of a self-sustaining virtuous circle in Yemen
probably not solving any issue back "at home".
It can be hoped for nevertheless.
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You're welcome
xibre
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approximately june 2o2o
